Period analyzed
Jun 30, 2026 — Aug 31, 2026
First-party data
Choco Bets prediction performance
Choco Bets evaluates its predictions after events are settled. This report summarizes the observed performance of the published sample: accuracy, prediction volume, evaluated markets and a probabilistic-quality read.
During the analyzed period (Jun 30, 2026 – Aug 31, 2026), Choco Bets settled 5,831 predictions with an observed accuracy of 77.76%.
PerformanceBy marketBy competitionOver timeCoverageCalibration
Observed accuracy77.76%
Calibration32/100
Settled predictions
5,831
Observed accuracy
77.76%
Markets evaluated
54
Sample health
64/100
Calibration
32/100
Updated: Sep 5, 2026, 4:15 PM · How this data is prepared
What does the observed accuracy mean?
The share of settled predictions that turned out correct within the published sample. It is a historical figure, not a future success probability.
What does the sample represent?
The set of already-settled predictions — with a known real outcome — published before kickoff, within the period shown above. It does not include predictions still awaiting a result.
How are predictions settled?
Every published prediction is recorded before the match is played. Once the match ends, the real result determines a hit or a miss, and that outcome is folded into the aggregate metrics without being excluded afterwards.
Does historical accuracy predict future results?
No. It is a retrospective measurement over a specific sample and period. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and data coverage varies by league and period.
How does Choco Bets evaluate the quality of its probabilities?
Beyond accuracy (right or wrong?), Choco Bets measures calibration: if the system estimates 70% probability many times, does that outcome actually happen close to 70% of the time? The full breakdown, with real data by confidence range, is in the calibration report.
Limitations
These figures describe a specific period and sample, documented above. They do not guarantee future results, data coverage varies by league and period, and no Choco Bets prediction is a promise of accuracy.