First-party data
How does Choco Bets’ performance evolve over time?
This series shows, month by month, how many predictions were settled, how accurate they were, and how well-calibrated they were. Every month with settled activity is shown, even thin-sample ones — flagged as such rather than hidden, so the series stays complete and can’t be read selectively.
Between June 2026 and August 2026 (3 months), Choco Bets settled 11,924 predictions in total. 2 months have a reliable sample for precise comparison, 1 has a limited sample.
PerformanceBy marketBy competitionOver timeCoverageCalibration
Height = settled volume that month · label = observed accuracy
| Month | Settled predictions | Observed accuracy | Calibration | Sample status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 2026 | 11 | 64% | 36/100 | Limited sample |
| July 2026 | 2,288 | 68% | 25/100 | Reliable sample |
| August 2026 | 9,625 | 70% | 22/100 | Reliable sample |
Every month with settled activity is shown, including thin or zero-sample ones — see the FAQ below.
Updated: Sep 5, 2026, 4:15 PM · How this data is prepared
Why do some months show "limited sample"?
Because this report never hides a month for having few settled predictions — it only flags it. A month with few predictions can show accuracy that swings a lot from one month to the next purely from sample size, not because the system changed.
What does "no settled activity" mean?
That month has no predictions with a known real outcome yet — that is different from a small sample. It can mean no predictions were published that month, or the ones published haven’t been played yet.
Does this series show whether the system is improving or degrading?
The series shows the real month-by-month data so it can be assessed at a glance. We deliberately do not yet compute an automatic trend verdict ("improving"/"degrading") — that would need more history than is currently available to be a reliable read.
Limitations
These figures describe a specific period and sample, documented above. They do not guarantee future results, data coverage varies by league and period, and no Choco Bets prediction is a promise of accuracy.