First-party data
Which markets does Choco Bets perform best in?
Choco Bets' overall accuracy blends very different markets together. This report breaks it down by market type — 1X2, totals, both teams to score, handicaps and others — showing only the ones with enough sample for the figure to be statistically reliable.
This report evaluates 13 markets with a statistically sufficient sample (margin of error ≤8 percentage points, 90% confidence); 36 additional markets don't clear that bar and aren't published here.
PerformanceBy marketBy competitionOver timeCoverageCalibration
| Market | Sample | Observed accuracy | Margin of error | Calibration | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total de goles | 7,028 | 77% | ±0.8 pts | 32/100 | Jun 30, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026 |
| Doble oportunidad | 6,298 | 74% | ±0.9 pts | 23/100 | Jun 30, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026 |
| Hándicap asiático | 5,738 | 77% | ±0.9 pts | 31/100 | Jun 30, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026 |
| Equipo marca | 3,084 | 76% | ±1.3 pts | 26/100 | Jul 5, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026 |
| Goles del equipo | 2,150 | 81% | ±1.4 pts | 39/100 | Jul 17, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026 |
| Ambos marcan | 989 | 53% | ±2.6 pts | 0/100 | Jul 4, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026 |
| 1X2 | 600 | 44% | ±3.3 pts | 2/100 | Jul 4, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026 |
| Margen de victoria | 445 | 28% | ±3.5 pts | 5/100 | Jul 5, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026 |
| Sin empate (DNB) | 253 | 75% | ±4.5 pts | 31/100 | Jul 2, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026 |
| Multi-goles | 169 | 28% | ±5.7 pts | 9/100 | Aug 3, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026 |
| Hándicap europeo (-1) | 167 | 68% | ±5.9 pts | 9/100 | Jul 4, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026 |
| Gana a cero | 143 | 29% | ±6.2 pts | 20/100 | Jul 18, 2026 – Oct 11, 2026 |
| Resultado exacto | 139 | 8% | ±3.8 pts | 66/100 | Jul 25, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026 |
Only markets with enough sample for a reliable margin of error are shown — see the FAQ below.
Updated: Oct 23, 2026, 4:26 PM · How this data is prepared
Why don't all markets appear?
A market is only published once its sample is large enough for the observed accuracy to have a margin of error of 8 percentage points or less, at 90% confidence. Markets with a small sample are omitted rather than published with a misleadingly wide margin of error.
What is the margin of error?
A range around the observed accuracy: at 90% confidence, the real value falls within that range. A ±5-point margin is more precise than a ±15-point one — that's why low-sample markets, even with an eye-catching figure, aren't published here.
How is per-market calibration calculated?
With the Brier Score normalized to a 0-100 scale, computed only over that specific market's settled predictions.
Limitations
These figures describe a specific period and sample, documented above. They do not guarantee future results, data coverage varies by league and period, and no Choco Bets prediction is a promise of accuracy.