First-party data
Which markets does Choco Bets perform best in?
Choco Bets' overall accuracy blends very different markets together. This report breaks it down by market type — 1X2, totals, both teams to score, handicaps and others — showing only the ones with enough sample for the figure to be statistically reliable.
This report evaluates 11 markets with a statistically sufficient sample (margin of error ≤8 percentage points, 90% confidence); 43 additional markets don't clear that bar and aren't published here.
PerformanceBy marketBy competitionOver timeCoverageCalibration
| Market | Sample | Observed accuracy | Margin of error | Calibration | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total de goles | 3,239 | 75% | ±1.3 pts | 27/100 | Jun 30, 2026 – Aug 31, 2026 |
| Doble oportunidad | 2,760 | 72% | ±1.4 pts | 17/100 | Jun 30, 2026 – Aug 31, 2026 |
| Hándicap asiático | 2,278 | 77% | ±1.5 pts | 31/100 | Jun 30, 2026 – Aug 31, 2026 |
| Equipo marca | 1,557 | 75% | ±1.8 pts | 23/100 | Jul 1, 2026 – Aug 31, 2026 |
| 1X2 | 503 | 45% | ±3.6 pts | 0/100 | Jul 1, 2026 – Aug 30, 2026 |
| Ambos marcan | 416 | 55% | ±4 pts | 0/100 | Jul 3, 2026 – Aug 30, 2026 |
| Margen de victoria | 291 | 24% | ±4.1 pts | 3/100 | Jul 4, 2026 – Aug 31, 2026 |
| Goles del equipo | 193 | 94% | ±2.8 pts | 69/100 | Aug 19, 2026 – Aug 31, 2026 |
| Gana a cero | 158 | 28% | ±5.9 pts | 22/100 | Jul 18, 2026 – Aug 23, 2026 |
| Sin empate (DNB) | 146 | 69% | ±6.3 pts | 20/100 | Jul 2, 2026 – Aug 31, 2026 |
| Resultado exacto | 137 | 8% | ±3.8 pts | 66/100 | Jul 25, 2026 – Aug 30, 2026 |
Only markets with enough sample for a reliable margin of error are shown — see the FAQ below.
Updated: Sep 5, 2026, 4:15 PM · How this data is prepared
Why don't all markets appear?
A market is only published once its sample is large enough for the observed accuracy to have a margin of error of 8 percentage points or less, at 90% confidence. Markets with a small sample are omitted rather than published with a misleadingly wide margin of error.
What is the margin of error?
A range around the observed accuracy: at 90% confidence, the real value falls within that range. A ±5-point margin is more precise than a ±15-point one — that's why low-sample markets, even with an eye-catching figure, aren't published here.
How is per-market calibration calculated?
With the same Brier Score normalized to a 0-100 scale used elsewhere on the site, computed only over that specific market's settled predictions.
Limitations
These figures describe a specific period and sample, documented above. They do not guarantee future results, data coverage varies by league and period, and no Choco Bets prediction is a promise of accuracy.