First-party data
Are Choco Bets predictions well-calibrated?
A prediction is well-calibrated when, over a large enough sample, the observed outcome approaches the estimated probability. This page shows that comparison using Choco Bets’ real data, by confidence range.
During the analyzed period (Jun 30, 2026 – Aug 31, 2026), Choco Bets assessed the calibration of 12,195 settled predictions, spread across 10 confidence ranges.
PerformanceBy marketBy competitionOver timeCoverageCalibration
Estimated probabilityObserved frequency
| Confidence range | Predictions | Estimated probability (avg) | Observed frequency | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.50-0.55 | 256 | 52.4% | 48.4% | +4% |
| 0.55-0.60 | 268 | 57.7% | 49.6% | +8.1% |
| 0.60-0.65 | 284 | 62.8% | 54.2% | +8.6% |
| 0.65-0.70 | 754 | 68.1% | 62.9% | +5.2% |
| 0.70-0.75 | 1,819 | 72.8% | 72.5% | +0.3% |
| 0.75-0.80 | 2,496 | 77.6% | 72.6% | +5% |
| 0.80-0.85 | 1,670 | 82.6% | 76% | +6.6% |
| 0.85-0.90 | 2,092 | 87.5% | 79.3% | +8.2% |
| 0.90-0.95 | 1,005 | 92.3% | 81.9% | +10.4% |
| 0.95-1.00 | 349 | 96.8% | 84.5% | +12.3% |
Each row groups settled predictions whose estimated probability falls in that range. "Difference" is the average estimated probability minus the real hit frequency — close to 0 indicates good calibration in that range.
Total sample: 12,195 · Updated: Sep 5, 2026, 4:15 PM · How this data is prepared
What is calibration?
A prediction is well-calibrated when observed outcomes approach the estimated probabilities across a large enough sample. It does not measure whether one individual prediction was right, but whether the system is honest about its own uncertainty.
What does a 70% prediction mean?
That, among all predictions Choco Bets assigns roughly 70% probability to, about 7 out of 10 are expected to turn out correct — not that THAT specific prediction will.
Does a high probability mean certainty?
No. Even an 85-90% probability leaves a real share of cases that don’t happen. The table above shows that share with real data, not just in theory.
How is model quality measured?
With the Brier Score, which compares each estimated probability against the real outcome: the lower, the better-calibrated the prediction is on average. Choco Bets does not publish that figure in isolation — without period, sample and full methodology it reads as a promise of accuracy — but the table on this page is exactly the breakdown that figure summarizes.
Limitations
These figures describe a specific period and sample, documented above. They do not guarantee future results, data coverage varies by league and period, and no Choco Bets prediction is a promise of accuracy.