Provenance
Football data is presented with Opta as its originating source. Attribution does not imply partnership, sponsorship or endorsement.
Methodology
The depth behind a transparent estimate.
We document provenance, preparation, criteria and limits so analysis can be interpreted in context.
Preparation
Available information is structured so matches and variables can be analysed consistently.
Estimate
Statistical procedures produce probabilities and confidence signals, not a promise of outcome.
Review
The same dataset, version and parameters can reproduce a software output. The real match remains uncertain.
Results and limits
Every historical reading needs a period, sample, definition and update date.
Review the published history →The ensemble
Which models does Choco Bets use?
THE EDGE combines six independent statistical models. Each measures something different about the match; none decides alone.
Poisson
- What it measures
- The probability of each scoreline, assuming each team's goals follow an independent Poisson distribution.
- What it contributes
- A simple, well-established statistical base for estimating results, over/under and both-teams-to-score.
- What it doesn't mean
- On its own it does not capture the special dependency between low scorelines — that is what Dixon-Coles is for.
Dixon-Coles
- What it measures
- The same as Poisson, with a statistical correction for low scorelines and draws that plain Poisson underestimates.
- What it contributes
- A better fit to the real frequency of results like 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 and 1-1.
- What it doesn't mean
- Still based on expected goals, not on a team’s recent form alone.
Elo
- What it measures
- Each team's relative strength from its results history, expressed as a win probability.
- What it contributes
- A signal centred on which team is better, beyond the goal average.
- What it doesn't mean
- It does not replace the context of a specific match: injuries, schedule, motivation.
Bayesian
- What it measures
- Each team's expected scoring rate, combining its league average with its real recent goals.
- What it contributes
- More stable estimates when little history is available, giving less weight to small samples.
- What it doesn't mean
- Not a hunch — a formal statistical update over a starting value.
Market consensus
- What it measures
- The probability implied by betting odds, corrected for the bookmaker margin.
- What it contributes
- The most informed pre-match signal available, because it aggregates the market’s collective view.
- What it doesn't mean
- Not a Choco Bets prediction of its own — an external input the ensemble weighs alongside the others.
XGBoost
- What it measures
- Non-linear patterns between match variables that classic statistical models do not capture directly.
- What it contributes
- Real diversity for the ensemble: its estimates don't always match the other models', which helps correct individual blind spots.
- What it doesn't mean
- It does not replace the other models — it is weighted alongside them, not in their place.
How are the models combined?
All six models compute their own probability for each match. THE EDGE combines them into a final probability using weighting recalibrated against already-settled outcomes — not a simple average: each model weighs in proportion to how well it has performed historically.
How are the probabilities evaluated?
With the Brier Score, which measures how close the estimated probability was to the real outcome, and with calibration: if the system says 70% many times, does that outcome happen close to 70% of the time? Both metrics are computed only over already-settled predictions, never over future matches.
How is a prediction reviewed?
Every published prediction is recorded before the match is played. Once settled, the result is folded into the aggregate metrics on /resultados without being excluded afterwards. The recent-hits examples shown separately are curated highlights; they do not replace the full history.
What limitations does it have?
Probabilities summarise available information; they do not remove the real uncertainty of a match. Data coverage varies by league and period, so an estimate is not equally solid in every case. No Choco Bets prediction guarantees a result.
Real accuracy and calibration data: performance report and calibration report.