First-party data
Which competitions does Choco Bets perform best in?
Data coverage and quality vary a lot between leagues. This report breaks accuracy down by competition, showing only the ones with enough sample for the figure to be statistically reliable — never every covered league, only the ones with enough settled history already.
This report evaluates 88 competitions with a statistically sufficient sample (margin of error ≤8 percentage points, 90% confidence); 25 additional competitions don't clear that bar and aren't published here.
PerformanceBy marketBy competitionOver timeCoverageCalibration
Major League Soccer75% · n=1,047
Liga Profesional de Fútbol75% · n=964
Brasileirão Série B74% · n=706
Primera A72% · n=650
Brasileirão Série A76% · n=646
Liga 174% · n=531
Primera B (Colombia)78% · n=499
WORLD: Friendly International74% · n=489
Primera División de Bolivia (Liga Boliviana)76% · n=467
Conference League - Qualification72% · n=467
K League 172% · n=464
Liga MX75% · n=455
Taca de Portugal65% · n=451
LaLiga74% · n=436
Primera División de Paraguay (Copa de Primera)76% · n=433
J1 League68% · n=431
Primera B67% · n=407
Eredivisie78% · n=401
LaLiga272% · n=396
Chinese Super League69% · n=392
Persian Gulf Pro League74% · n=369
Primera División78% · n=366
Allsvenskan66% · n=354
Saudi Professional League74% · n=351
Premier League (Egipto)73% · n=345
Serie B70% · n=334
Europa League - Qualification70% · n=332
Serie A73% · n=331
Primera División de Uruguay (Campeonato Uruguayo)74% · n=325
Ekstraklasa76% · n=323
Eliteserien77% · n=319
Premier League (Inglaterra)73% · n=319
Primera Division - Apertura76% · n=317
Chance Liga73% · n=312
Premier League (Rusia)73% · n=310
EFL Cup70% · n=309
UEFA Champions League69% · n=309
Primeira Liga76% · n=305
Superliga (Rumanía)71% · n=303
Liga Nacional de Fútbol de Guatemala71% · n=301
Ligue 1 (Francia)73% · n=296
Segunda División73% · n=295
Liga 264% · n=293
Belgian Pro League72% · n=293
Süper Lig74% · n=287
Bundesliga77% · n=284
Eerste Divisie74% · n=284
Liga Panameña77% · n=283
Super League (Uzbekistán)73% · n=282
2. Bundesliga76% · n=279
Ligue 276% · n=278
Mozzart Bet Super Liga72% · n=256
CAF Champions League71% · n=250
Premier League (Ucrania)73% · n=248
Superliga (Dinamarca)78% · n=240
Swiss Cup67% · n=232
FA Cup78% · n=216
Swiss Super League74% · n=214
Super League (Grecia)70% · n=212
Austrian Bundesliga70% · n=210
Scottish Premiership73% · n=206
Canadian Premier League72% · n=202
Copa Sudamericana64% · n=202
Primera Nacional74% · n=200
Liga Nacional74% · n=188
Liga FUTVE - Clausura74% · n=184
WWIN Liga BiH70% · n=171
Liga Promerica77% · n=166
Polish Cup79% · n=160
Dataset competition swe_cup61% · n=159
Coppa Italia68% · n=152
UEFA Nations League85% · n=149
LigaPro79% · n=135
Copa Paraguay67% · n=135
Copa Libertadores76% · n=128
Copa Paceña81% · n=125
Copa Chile72% · n=108
Russian Cup - Group Stage67% · n=108
UEFA Nations League - League C79% · n=107
División Intermedia80% · n=106
UEFA Nations League - League B68% · n=106
Championship73% · n=106
Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification79% · n=104
CONCACAF Nations League - League B73% · n=93
Copa Colombia69% · n=93
Copa do Brasil74% · n=90
Liga de Expansión MX81% · n=86
UEFA Youth League83% · n=65
| Competition | Sample | Observed accuracy | Margin of error | Calibration | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Major League Soccer | 1,047 | 75% | ±2.2 pts | 31/100 | Jul 17, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026 |
| Liga Profesional de Fútbol | 964 | 75% | ±2.3 pts | 33/100 | Jul 24, 2026 – Oct 19, 2026 |
| Brasileirão Série B | 706 | 74% | ±2.7 pts | 30/100 | Jul 18, 2026 – Oct 19, 2026 |
| Primera A | 650 | 72% | ±2.9 pts | 26/100 | Jul 25, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026 |
| Brasileirão Série A | 646 | 76% | ±2.8 pts | 36/100 | Jul 17, 2026 – Oct 19, 2026 |
| Liga 1 | 531 | 74% | ±3.1 pts | 27/100 | Jul 17, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026 |
| Primera B (Colombia) | 499 | 78% | ±3.1 pts | 36/100 | Jul 24, 2026 – Oct 20, 2026 |
| WORLD: Friendly International | 489 | 74% | ±3.3 pts | 25/100 | Sep 25, 2026 – Oct 7, 2026 |
| Primera División de Bolivia (Liga Boliviana) | 467 | 76% | ±3.3 pts | 31/100 | Jul 18, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026 |
| Conference League - Qualification | 467 | 72% | ±3.4 pts | 26/100 | Aug 11, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026 |
| K League 1 | 464 | 72% | ±3.4 pts | 30/100 | Jul 4, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026 |
| Liga MX | 455 | 75% | ±3.3 pts | 31/100 | Jul 17, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026 |
| Taca de Portugal | 451 | 65% | ±3.7 pts | 0/100 | Aug 28, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026 |
| LaLiga | 436 | 74% | ±3.5 pts | 29/100 | Aug 15, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026 |
| Primera División de Paraguay (Copa de Primera) | 433 | 76% | ±3.4 pts | 36/100 | Jul 24, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026 |
| J1 League | 431 | 68% | ±3.7 pts | 14/100 | Aug 7, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026 |
| Primera B | 407 | 67% | ±3.8 pts | 12/100 | Jul 25, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026 |
| Eredivisie | 401 | 78% | ±3.4 pts | 40/100 | Aug 7, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026 |
| LaLiga2 | 396 | 72% | ±3.7 pts | 20/100 | Aug 14, 2026 – Oct 19, 2026 |
| Chinese Super League | 392 | 69% | ±3.8 pts | 19/100 | Jul 3, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026 |
| Persian Gulf Pro League | 369 | 74% | ±3.8 pts | 29/100 | Aug 14, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026 |
| Primera División | 366 | 78% | ±3.6 pts | 33/100 | Jul 24, 2026 – Oct 11, 2026 |
| Allsvenskan | 354 | 66% | ±4.1 pts | 11/100 | Jul 4, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026 |
| Saudi Professional League | 351 | 74% | ±3.9 pts | 23/100 | Aug 13, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026 |
| Premier League (Egipto) | 345 | 73% | ±3.9 pts | 27/100 | Aug 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026 |
| Serie B | 334 | 70% | ±4.1 pts | 23/100 | Jul 23, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026 |
| Europa League - Qualification | 332 | 70% | ±4.1 pts | 24/100 | Aug 11, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026 |
| Serie A | 331 | 73% | ±4 pts | 22/100 | Aug 22, 2026 – Oct 19, 2026 |
| Primera División de Uruguay (Campeonato Uruguayo) | 325 | 74% | ±4 pts | 28/100 | Jul 18, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026 |
| Ekstraklasa | 323 | 76% | ±3.9 pts | 30/100 | Aug 14, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026 |
| Eliteserien | 319 | 77% | ±3.9 pts | 39/100 | Jul 11, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026 |
| Premier League (Inglaterra) | 319 | 73% | ±4.1 pts | 24/100 | Aug 21, 2026 – Oct 17, 2026 |
| Primera Division - Apertura | 317 | 76% | ±3.9 pts | 33/100 | Aug 15, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026 |
| Chance Liga | 312 | 73% | ±4.1 pts | 23/100 | Aug 15, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026 |
| Premier League (Rusia) | 310 | 73% | ±4.1 pts | 25/100 | Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 19, 2026 |
| EFL Cup | 309 | 70% | ±4.3 pts | 27/100 | Aug 7, 2026 – Sep 17, 2026 |
| UEFA Champions League | 309 | 69% | ±4.3 pts | 22/100 | Jul 29, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026 |
| Primeira Liga | 305 | 76% | ±4 pts | 30/100 | Aug 7, 2026 – Oct 19, 2026 |
| Superliga (Rumanía) | 303 | 71% | ±4.3 pts | 20/100 | Aug 14, 2026 – Oct 19, 2026 |
| Liga Nacional de Fútbol de Guatemala | 301 | 71% | ±4.3 pts | 23/100 | Jul 25, 2026 – Oct 20, 2026 |
| Ligue 1 (Francia) | 296 | 73% | ±4.2 pts | 25/100 | Aug 21, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026 |
| Segunda División | 295 | 73% | ±4.3 pts | 24/100 | Jul 18, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026 |
| Liga 2 | 293 | 64% | ±4.6 pts | 15/100 | Jul 19, 2026 – Sep 13, 2026 |
| Belgian Pro League | 293 | 72% | ±4.3 pts | 25/100 | Aug 7, 2026 – Oct 11, 2026 |
| Süper Lig | 287 | 74% | ±4.3 pts | 27/100 | Aug 14, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026 |
| Bundesliga | 284 | 77% | ±4.1 pts | 31/100 | Aug 28, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026 |
| Eerste Divisie | 284 | 74% | ±4.3 pts | 24/100 | Sep 11, 2026 – Oct 19, 2026 |
| Liga Panameña | 283 | 77% | ±4.1 pts | 38/100 | Jul 25, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026 |
| Super League (Uzbekistán) | 282 | 73% | ±4.3 pts | 25/100 | Aug 13, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026 |
| 2. Bundesliga | 279 | 76% | ±4.2 pts | 28/100 | Aug 7, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026 |
| Ligue 2 | 278 | 76% | ±4.2 pts | 34/100 | Aug 14, 2026 – Oct 17, 2026 |
| Mozzart Bet Super Liga | 256 | 72% | ±4.6 pts | 28/100 | Aug 15, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026 |
| CAF Champions League | 250 | 71% | ±4.7 pts | 17/100 | Sep 4, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026 |
| Premier League (Ucrania) | 248 | 73% | ±4.6 pts | 28/100 | Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026 |
| Superliga (Dinamarca) | 240 | 78% | ±4.4 pts | 35/100 | Jul 26, 2026 – Oct 19, 2026 |
| Swiss Cup | 232 | 67% | ±5.1 pts | 16/100 | Aug 14, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026 |
| FA Cup | 216 | 78% | ±4.6 pts | 28/100 | Oct 3, 2026 – Oct 17, 2026 |
| Swiss Super League | 214 | 74% | ±4.9 pts | 29/100 | Jul 25, 2026 – Oct 11, 2026 |
| Super League (Grecia) | 212 | 70% | ±5.2 pts | 21/100 | Aug 22, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026 |
| Austrian Bundesliga | 210 | 70% | ±5.2 pts | 22/100 | Jul 31, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026 |
| Scottish Premiership | 206 | 73% | ±5.1 pts | 27/100 | Aug 1, 2026 – Oct 17, 2026 |
| Canadian Premier League | 202 | 72% | ±5.2 pts | 28/100 | Aug 15, 2026 – Oct 17, 2026 |
| Copa Sudamericana | 202 | 64% | ±5.6 pts | 17/100 | Jul 23, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026 |
| Primera Nacional | 200 | 74% | ±5.1 pts | 36/100 | Jul 18, 2026 – Oct 19, 2026 |
| Liga Nacional | 188 | 74% | ±5.3 pts | 32/100 | Aug 1, 2026 – Oct 17, 2026 |
| Liga FUTVE - Clausura | 184 | 74% | ±5.3 pts | 34/100 | Aug 15, 2026 – Oct 17, 2026 |
| WWIN Liga BiH | 171 | 70% | ±5.8 pts | 20/100 | Aug 9, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026 |
| Liga Promerica | 166 | 77% | ±5.4 pts | 29/100 | Jul 24, 2026 – Oct 20, 2026 |
| Polish Cup | 160 | 79% | ±5.3 pts | 32/100 | Sep 1, 2026 – Sep 15, 2026 |
| Dataset competition swe_cup | 159 | 61% | ±6.4 pts | 0/100 | Aug 18, 2026 – Oct 6, 2026 |
| Coppa Italia | 152 | 68% | ±6.2 pts | 14/100 | Aug 8, 2026 – Sep 15, 2026 |
| UEFA Nations League | 149 | 85% | ±4.8 pts | 50/100 | Sep 24, 2026 – Oct 6, 2026 |
| LigaPro | 135 | 79% | ±5.8 pts | 42/100 | Jul 18, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026 |
| Copa Paraguay | 135 | 67% | ±6.7 pts | 15/100 | Aug 11, 2026 – Oct 14, 2026 |
| Copa Libertadores | 128 | 76% | ±6.2 pts | 40/100 | Aug 11, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026 |
| Copa Paceña | 125 | 81% | ±5.8 pts | 40/100 | Sep 25, 2026 – Oct 9, 2026 |
| Copa Chile | 108 | 72% | ±7.1 pts | 14/100 | Jul 19, 2026 – Sep 27, 2026 |
| Russian Cup - Group Stage | 108 | 67% | ±7.4 pts | 12/100 | Aug 18, 2026 – Oct 15, 2026 |
| UEFA Nations League - League C | 107 | 79% | ±6.5 pts | 31/100 | Sep 25, 2026 – Oct 6, 2026 |
| División Intermedia | 106 | 80% | ±6.4 pts | 40/100 | Jul 18, 2026 – Oct 20, 2026 |
| UEFA Nations League - League B | 106 | 68% | ±7.5 pts | 13/100 | Sep 25, 2026 – Oct 6, 2026 |
| Championship | 106 | 73% | ±7.1 pts | 28/100 | Aug 15, 2026 – Oct 17, 2026 |
| Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification | 104 | 79% | ±6.6 pts | 41/100 | Sep 25, 2026 – Oct 6, 2026 |
| CONCACAF Nations League - League B | 93 | 73% | ±7.6 pts | 24/100 | Sep 25, 2026 – Oct 6, 2026 |
| Copa Colombia | 93 | 69% | ±7.9 pts | 27/100 | Jul 21, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026 |
| Copa do Brasil | 90 | 74% | ±7.6 pts | 25/100 | Aug 2, 2026 – Sep 3, 2026 |
| Liga de Expansión MX | 86 | 81% | ±7 pts | 45/100 | Jul 25, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026 |
| UEFA Youth League | 65 | 83% | ±7.7 pts | 41/100 | Oct 14, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026 |
Only competitions with enough sample for a reliable margin of error are shown — see the FAQ below.
Updated: Oct 23, 2026, 4:26 PM · How this data is prepared
Why don't all competitions appear?
A competition is only published once its settled sample is large enough for the observed accuracy to have a margin of error of 8 percentage points or less, at 90% confidence. Competitions with little history are omitted rather than published with a misleadingly wide margin of error.
How is each competition identified?
By its canonical identity in Choco Bets' catalog, not the raw source-data name — so the same league never shows up duplicated or under a placeholder name.
What does margin of error mean here?
The same as in the by-market report: a range around the observed accuracy within which, at 90% confidence, the real value falls. The more settled sample a competition has, the narrower that range.
Limitations
These figures describe a specific period and sample, documented above. They do not guarantee future results, data coverage varies by league and period, and no Choco Bets prediction is a promise of accuracy.