First-party data
Which competitions does Choco Bets perform best in?
Data coverage and quality vary a lot between leagues. This report breaks accuracy down by competition, showing only the ones with enough sample for the figure to be statistically reliable — never every covered league, only the ones with enough settled history already.
This report evaluates 58 competitions with a statistically sufficient sample (margin of error ≤8 percentage points, 90% confidence); 42 additional competitions don't clear that bar and aren't published here.
PerformanceBy marketBy competitionOver timeCoverageCalibration
| Competition | Sample | Observed accuracy | Margin of error | Calibration | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liga Profesional de Fútbol | 501 | 69% | ±3.4 pts | 26/100 | Jul 24, 2026 – Aug 31, 2026 |
| Major League Soccer | 413 | 75% | ±3.5 pts | 29/100 | Jul 17, 2026 – Aug 30, 2026 |
| Brasileirão Série B | 360 | 71% | ±3.9 pts | 27/100 | Jul 18, 2026 – Aug 30, 2026 |
| Conference League - Qualification | 348 | 68% | ±4.1 pts | 18/100 | Aug 11, 2026 – Aug 27, 2026 |
| Liga 1 | 305 | 72% | ±4.2 pts | 25/100 | Jul 17, 2026 – Aug 31, 2026 |
| Primera B | 280 | 65% | ±4.7 pts | 12/100 | Jul 25, 2026 – Aug 30, 2026 |
| Primera A | 277 | 69% | ±4.6 pts | 27/100 | Jul 24, 2026 – Aug 31, 2026 |
| Brasileirão Série A | 275 | 69% | ±4.6 pts | 27/100 | Jul 16, 2026 – Aug 30, 2026 |
| Primera División de Bolivia (Liga Boliviana) | 272 | 72% | ±4.5 pts | 25/100 | Jul 18, 2026 – Aug 28, 2026 |
| K League 1 | 268 | 70% | ±4.6 pts | 25/100 | Jul 4, 2026 – Aug 30, 2026 |
| EFL Cup | 232 | 73% | ±4.8 pts | 31/100 | Aug 1, 2026 – Aug 27, 2026 |
| Taca de Portugal | 231 | 70% | ±5 pts | 13/100 | Aug 28, 2026 – Aug 30, 2026 |
| Liga 2 | 226 | 66% | ±5.2 pts | 25/100 | Jul 19, 2026 – Aug 30, 2026 |
| Primera División | 212 | 80% | ±4.5 pts | 42/100 | Jul 24, 2026 – Aug 31, 2026 |
| Chinese Super League | 209 | 71% | ±5.2 pts | 22/100 | Jul 25, 2026 – Aug 29, 2026 |
| Swiss Cup | 200 | 64% | ±5.6 pts | 9/100 | Jul 25, 2026 – Aug 16, 2026 |
| Primera División de Paraguay (Copa de Primera) | 193 | 72% | ±5.3 pts | 25/100 | Jul 24, 2026 – Aug 30, 2026 |
| Persian Gulf Pro League | 184 | 74% | ±5.3 pts | 28/100 | Aug 14, 2026 – Aug 29, 2026 |
| Liga MX | 182 | 65% | ±5.8 pts | 14/100 | Jul 17, 2026 – Aug 31, 2026 |
| Primera B (Colombia) | 168 | 77% | ±5.3 pts | 35/100 | Jul 24, 2026 – Aug 29, 2026 |
| Allsvenskan | 166 | 69% | ±5.9 pts | 13/100 | Jul 4, 2026 – Aug 30, 2026 |
| Primera División de Uruguay (Campeonato Uruguayo) | 162 | 72% | ±5.8 pts | 26/100 | Jul 18, 2026 – Aug 30, 2026 |
| LaLiga | 162 | 70% | ±5.9 pts | 16/100 | Aug 15, 2026 – Aug 30, 2026 |
| Europa League - Qualification | 161 | 71% | ±5.9 pts | 26/100 | Aug 11, 2026 – Aug 27, 2026 |
| LaLiga2 | 148 | 67% | ±6.4 pts | 17/100 | Aug 14, 2026 – Aug 30, 2026 |
| Primera Nacional | 147 | 63% | ±6.6 pts | 23/100 | Jul 18, 2026 – Aug 1, 2026 |
| Eredivisie | 146 | 73% | ±6 pts | 31/100 | Aug 7, 2026 – Aug 30, 2026 |
| Premier League (Egipto) | 144 | 75% | ±5.9 pts | 28/100 | Aug 21, 2026 – Aug 31, 2026 |
| Saudi Professional League | 143 | 73% | ±6.1 pts | 20/100 | Aug 13, 2026 – Aug 30, 2026 |
| Dataset competition swe_cup | 143 | 61% | ±6.7 pts | 0/100 | Aug 18, 2026 – Aug 27, 2026 |
| Copa Paraguay | 139 | 70% | ±6.4 pts | 25/100 | Jul 19, 2026 – Aug 27, 2026 |
| Copa Perú | 136 | 70% | ±6.5 pts | 18/100 | Jul 17, 2026 – Jul 26, 2026 |
| Belgian Pro League | 136 | 73% | ±6.3 pts | 30/100 | Aug 7, 2026 – Aug 30, 2026 |
| Copa Sudamericana | 134 | 63% | ±6.9 pts | 22/100 | Jul 21, 2026 – Aug 27, 2026 |
| Serie B | 133 | 63% | ±6.9 pts | 13/100 | Jul 23, 2026 – Aug 30, 2026 |
| Superliga (Rumanía) | 131 | 73% | ±6.4 pts | 29/100 | Aug 14, 2026 – Aug 30, 2026 |
| Premier League (Rusia) | 131 | 71% | ±6.5 pts | 19/100 | Aug 10, 2026 – Aug 30, 2026 |
| J1 League | 128 | 59% | ±7.2 pts | 0/100 | Aug 14, 2026 – Aug 29, 2026 |
| FIFA World Cup | 125 | 70% | ±6.7 pts | 38/100 | Jun 30, 2026 – Jul 19, 2026 |
| Süper Lig | 125 | 70% | ±6.7 pts | 21/100 | Aug 14, 2026 – Aug 30, 2026 |
| Liga Panameña | 124 | 77% | ±6.2 pts | 38/100 | Jul 25, 2026 – Aug 30, 2026 |
| Ekstraklasa | 124 | 74% | ±6.5 pts | 20/100 | Aug 14, 2026 – Aug 30, 2026 |
| Coppa Italia | 119 | 67% | ±7.1 pts | 9/100 | Aug 8, 2026 – Aug 17, 2026 |
| Ligue 2 | 116 | 73% | ±6.8 pts | 33/100 | Aug 14, 2026 – Aug 29, 2026 |
| Super League (Uzbekistán) | 113 | 71% | ±7 pts | 20/100 | Aug 13, 2026 – Aug 26, 2026 |
| Chance Liga | 107 | 80% | ±6.4 pts | 35/100 | Aug 15, 2026 – Aug 30, 2026 |
| Segunda División | 107 | 64% | ±7.6 pts | 9/100 | Jul 18, 2026 – Aug 30, 2026 |
| Premier League (Inglaterra) | 105 | 77% | ±6.8 pts | 31/100 | Aug 21, 2026 – Aug 30, 2026 |
| Primera Division - Apertura | 104 | 67% | ±7.6 pts | 16/100 | Aug 15, 2026 – Aug 30, 2026 |
| Premier League (Ucrania) | 99 | 67% | ±7.8 pts | 23/100 | Aug 10, 2026 – Aug 30, 2026 |
| Liga FUTVE - Clausura | 96 | 77% | ±7.1 pts | 32/100 | Aug 15, 2026 – Aug 30, 2026 |
| Ligue 1 (Francia) | 94 | 67% | ±8 pts | 13/100 | Aug 21, 2026 – Aug 30, 2026 |
| Eliteserien | 93 | 75% | ±7.4 pts | 33/100 | Jul 12, 2026 – Aug 30, 2026 |
| Copa Colombia | 92 | 68% | ±8 pts | 26/100 | Jul 21, 2026 – Aug 6, 2026 |
| Copa Ecuador | 84 | 73% | ±8 pts | 25/100 | Jul 18, 2026 – Aug 26, 2026 |
| Superliga (Dinamarca) | 84 | 74% | ±7.9 pts | 37/100 | Aug 10, 2026 – Aug 30, 2026 |
| Copa Libertadores | 72 | 82% | ±7.4 pts | 56/100 | Aug 11, 2026 – Aug 26, 2026 |
| División Intermedia | 69 | 80% | ±7.9 pts | 43/100 | Jul 18, 2026 – Aug 4, 2026 |
Only competitions with enough sample for a reliable margin of error are shown — see the FAQ below.
Updated: Sep 5, 2026, 4:15 PM · How this data is prepared
Why don't all competitions appear?
A competition is only published once its settled sample is large enough for the observed accuracy to have a margin of error of 8 percentage points or less, at 90% confidence. Competitions with little history are omitted rather than published with a misleadingly wide margin of error.
How is each competition identified?
By its canonical identity in Choco Bets' catalog, not the raw source-data name — so the same league never shows up duplicated or under a placeholder name.
What does margin of error mean here?
The same as in the by-market report: a range around the observed accuracy within which, at 90% confidence, the real value falls. The more settled sample a competition has, the narrower that range.
Limitations
These figures describe a specific period and sample, documented above. They do not guarantee future results, data coverage varies by league and period, and no Choco Bets prediction is a promise of accuracy.